Britain, Four Brexit Scenarios

In December, I published a blog about all the events that the Chartered Quality Professionals of the London Branch committee arranged “Roundup of 2018“. As promised, here is the brief of the event that was held in Nov 2018 “Britain, Four Brexit Scenarios”. The event was hosted at the head offices of the CQI in central London. Our presenter was from SAMI Consulting, Jonathan Blanchard Smith.

In 2017, SAMI consulting delivered a session on scenario planning in line with risk based thinking. The session was delivered by Hew Williams. The session was very successful, that the committee decided to take the topic to a next level.

The event was well received by all attendees for various reasons:

1. Jonathan was a great presenter who was able to engage with everyone and was not afraid to share his thoughts in a very professional manner

2. The topic by itself was of interest to everyone

3. The topic was discussed in a framework approach that everyone could learn something from and apply at work

So what is this framework?

The four Brexit scenarios for Britain in 2030 mainly talks about the approach to risk and opportunity management. These scenarios as explained by Jonathon are derived from the variables of the scale of globalisation vs the country’s focus. The country could move from globalisation to localisation and could shift its focus from social cohesion to economic focus. These variables would result in the following:

Global common approach: where the focus is on the social cohesion and the globalisation. In other words, Brexit with the least changes to the current status. The UK would be fully engaged with the international institutions and a strengthened E.U.

Localisation: where the focus is on social cohesion with localisation focus on the UK as a nation. This will see the UK moving away fro. The international agreements and institutes.it would potentially witness the use of technology to get. Ore border control. Regulations would be at their least enforcement and the UK would be one of many countries competing in the economic world

Global competition: where the focus is on globalisation and economic focus. This will dictate the approach of bloc economy and not international organisations and bilateral agreements in focus. The UK would need to define its competitive advantage in the world market

Fragmentation and competition: where the focus is economic and fragmentation. This will move the country into the constant search of political and economic allies. This phase will potentially see the rise of social division. Consumers will move into the constant search for what is the most benefit for the least spending. Competition trumps collaboration

This is just a brief overview of the depth of analysis that was provided. The session was fully engaging and triggered some thoughtful conversation.

Now how does this apply to you as a Quality professional or a Project Manager. Think of the project, product or service you are working with. What are the 2 major risks that are identified by your key stakeholders. Call them into a brainstorming meeting and bring those 2 major risks and identify the scale of which each risk would vary on, from one extreme to another. Once you do that will come to a four possible scenarios defined by how these 2 variables interest. Make sure all your stakeholders fully define and understand what each scenario means and how it will impact the project at hand. By doing so, you would ensure that your risk registrar is ready with a well thought of plan B in case any of these scenarios materialise.

When you are prepared, you are at a better position to make the best out of a situation and your stakeholders will be engaged and supporting the action path that will be taken when and if risks occurred.

Are you a member of the Chartered Quality Institute? Head to the members area and access the Quality World magazine. There is a full article published about this framework shared by Jonathan.